Why Ukraine Is in Its Strongest Position in Ten Months
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine ????????
Donetsk Oblast During an interview for The Times of Londons Frontline program, host Amy Kellogg gave me the chance toexplainfrom the field why based on Ukrainian and British intelligenceassessments many analysts believeUkraine is now in its most favorable position in at least ten months.I found it helpful to share some insights here.
To understand my observations, we must first redefine the very terms of the war. First,this is not a sudden eventbut the result of what Alla Perdei and I have beendescribingfor several months from the field: namely, thattechnology now dominates and broadens the concept of front beyond linearity. Beyond the areas of mutual infiltration (at least 10 km on each side) that characterize the hottest gray zone,it is what happens in what we have calledshades of graythat determines the course of the war.
Risk gradients vary based on ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) coverage, now extending more than 200 km beyond the hottest zones, where the parties electronic air dominance complicates each others logistics. For this reason,today it is more correct to speak in terms of control rather than conquests, offensives, counteroffensives, advances, and retreats. In this context,technology has transformed warfare to such an extent that territorial gains have become less important than control.
As we haveemphasizedmultiple times,Ukraine has an advantage over the Russian Federationbecause it has invested earlier and more effectively. While Moscow relied on Tehran and Beijing, Kyiv worked tirelessly to develop its ownimproved prototypes of all types of aerial and ground drones. While the Russian military exploited systemic flaws to seize thedeniedStarlink systems, the Ukrainian military learned from traumatic experiences like the intelligenceblackoutinKursk and other American betrayals to findinnovative, sustainable, and reliable solutions. While the Moscow Command targeted Ukrainian railway and service stations, the Kyiv Command implementeda logistics revolution. The President of Ukraine and the current Commander-in-Chief of its Armed Forces have made such decisivechangesin this and other military areas that they can be described as providential.
Since taking office in Kyiv, the Zelensky government has started restoring and upgrading the countrys roads, restructuring primary and secondary routes so effectively that it has cut travel times for trucks and car carriers from the western to the eastern regions in half. Without revealing details that could compromise military operations, Oleksandr Syrskyi whom some Italian journalists unfairly criticize in a sterile and decontextualized way has used Ukrainian soil and airspace like no other of his predecessors. He has done so successfully to create theconditions for a large-scale offensivethrough attrition and targeted strikes (such as in the Oleksandrivka-Huliaypole sector, for example) that have allowedthe ЗСУ toregaincontrol over 480 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory since January(asconfirmedby the General Staff and majorthink tanks). Evidence of the effectiveness of these tactics isthe forced redeployment of elite Russian units between Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
Syrskyi is well-versed in Soviet doctrine as well as the latest Western techniques and tools. He is skilled at developing a new logistical network. This provides a huge advantage inexploiting the enemys weaknesses. While Ukraine was buildingroads and tunnels, Moscow was moving men and equipment by rail. While Russian generals stuck with the meat grinder technique, Ukrainian generals adopted thedrone grinderapproach. Switching to operating frequencies higher than those detectable by Russian electronic warfare devices, which I recentlymentioned, gave the Ukrainians an additional edge by producingbetter equipment in larger quantities. Additionally, while Russian officers lied to their superiors about conquests that never happened,Ukrainian officers worked to secure controlof those territories. Here too,technology has reshaped the connection between truth and narrative.
Today, we are not simply facing a Russian tactical setback but a crisis of converting inflicted attrition into territorial gains.
In other words, Moscow keeps fighting with high intensity but struggles to turn that effort into real territory.
March marked the first month in over two years during which it lost more Ukrainian territory than it gained(just 23 km,accordingto ISW). In the first quarter of this year,the occupying forces rate of advance was significantly lowerthan in the same period in 2025. During those months,Russian losses consistentlyexceededrecruitment.
These official statistics highlightthe importance of control over linear conquest.
However, the Ukrainian advantage should not be viewed solely through technological innovation on the battlefield but also through the compression of the Russian hinterland. According toGreenreport,ISPI, Il Sole 24 Ore,et al,Ukrainian strikes against enemy oil and port infrastructure have disrupted about 40% of Moscows export capacityandare forcing production cutsthat many analystsdeeminevitable.
This means thatthe war is not being decided solely in the Donbas kill zone, but also inKyivs ability to impose increasing costs on the economic and logistical machine that fuels the Russian offensive.
Moscow responds withdaytime attacksbecause simply striking is no longer enough; it must maintain constant pressure, probing and saturating its anti-aircraft defenses with less predictable patterns. During the day, the population is exposed, and air defenses are more visible, making them more vulnerable to disruption. This is why Ukraine faces continuous attacks from nearly a thousand Russian aircraft every 24 hours.
The way Moscow turned attrition into territorial gains is reaching a crisis point. Kyiv is in a stronger position because it has adapted more effectively. It remains to be seen if the West can do the same before Russia also adjusts.
In 1.500 days of war,we recorded over 250 videos from ground zero and wrote more than 1,500 articles.
We are doing our best to provide genuine, first-hand reports from zones where almost no press dares to go. This means living in a kill zone constantly. We take the risk, but without your invaluable support, our voices would remain unheard and silent. Without brave people sharing our articles from afar, they would remain unread. Our reports would go unseen, and our efforts would be lost. Theres still a lot of work to do here, as the people around us are also in no better situation.
Were renewing ourfundraising campaignand thanking everyone who joins us in helping to restore what Russia is destroying. Moving forward with only a small reimbursement for each article from a brave newspaper that believes in us is extremely challenging. Thats why we are grateful to all the kind people who support us and trust in our mission.
Even a small donation helps.
Well keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, dear friends ????????
为什么乌克兰正处于十个月来最有利的位置
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
乌克兰前线报道????????
顿涅茨克州在接受《泰晤士报》前线节目采访时，主持人艾米凯洛格给了我一个机会，从前线解释为何基于乌克兰与英国情报部门的评估，许多分析人士认为乌克兰如今处于至少十个月以来最有利的战场态势。我认为，有必要在此分享一些见解。
（图：我与Alla在一条乌克兰战壕内报道????????版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
要理解我的观察，首先必须重新定义这场战争的基本概念。首先，这并非突发事件，而是阿拉佩尔代伊和我在过去数月在前线一直描述的结果：即技术如今主导并拓宽了前线的概念，使其不再是线性的。除了双向各延伸至少10公里、以最激烈的灰色地带为特征的双方渗透区外，决定战争走向的是我们所称的灰色阴影中的发展。
风险梯度因情报、监视与侦察（ISR）覆盖范围变化而变化，现在已延伸到比最热战区之外200公里，双方对电子空中优势的争夺不断削弱对方的后勤能力。因此，如今更恰当的说法是控制而非仅仅是攻占、进攻、反攻、推进或后撤。在这种语境下，技术已将战争改变到如此程度，使得领土收益不及控制力重要。
（图：我与阿拉在乌克兰赫尔松报道????????版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
正如我们多次强调的，乌克兰相较于俄罗斯联邦具有优势，因为它更早、更有效地进行了技术投入。当莫斯科依赖德黑兰和北京时，基辅不懈地致力于开发自己的各种改良型空中与地面无人机原型。俄军利用体系性漏洞获取被禁用的星链系统时，乌克兰军方则从库尔斯克的情报中断以及其他美方背弃等痛苦经历中汲取教训，开发出创新、可持续且可靠的解决方案。当莫斯科军方攻击乌克兰的铁路与服务枢纽时，基辅指挥部则推动了一场后勤革命。乌克兰总统和现任武装部队總司令在这一及其他军事领域所做的决定性改变可谓是天意般至关重要。自泽连斯基政府上任以来，基辅开始修复并升级全国道路，重构主干与次干路线，使卡车和车载运输从西部到东部的行程时间缩短了一半。在不泄露可能危及军事行动的细节的前提下，奥列克桑德西尔斯基一些意大利记者对他进行了不切实际和脱离语境的不公正批评比他的前任更善用乌克兰本土与领空。他成功通过消耗战和定点打击（例如在奥列克桑德里夫卡胡利亚波尔一带）创造了发动大规模攻势的条件，使乌克兰武装力量自今年一月以来收复了约480平方公里的乌克兰领土（由总参谋部及主要智库证实）。这些战术有效的证据还包括，俄方精锐部队在顿涅茨克、扎波罗热与赫尔松之间被迫重新部署。
（图：一些用于探测空中无人机的电子对抗设备安装在我身后的车辆上版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
Syrskyi既精通苏联军事学说，也熟悉最新的西方技术与工具。他擅长构建新的后勤网络，这在利用敌方弱点方面提供了巨大优势。当乌克兰在修路和挖掘通道时，莫斯科仍依赖铁路调动人力与装备。当俄罗斯将军坚持绞肉机战术时，乌克兰将领采用了无人机绞肉机策略。切换到俄罗斯电子战设备难以探测的更高频段，如我前文所述，使乌方通过更先进、更大规模的装备生产获得额外优势。此外，当俄方军官向上级谎报并不存在的占领时，乌方军官致力于巩固对实控区域的控制。在这里，技术同样重塑了真想与叙述之间的关系。
（图：我与阿拉在乌克兰苏梅报道版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
今天，我们看到的并非仅是俄军的战术挫折，更是其将消耗成本转为领土收益的能力正在陷入危机。
换言之，莫斯科仍在以高强度作战，但难以将这种努力转化为实际领土上的收益。
据ISW统计，三月是两年多来首次俄军失去的乌克兰土地超过其夺取的月份，仅23平方公里。今年第一季度，俄占军的推进速率明显低于2025年同期。在那些月份里，俄方伤亡持续超过征召补充。
这些官方统计数据凸显了控制力相较线性征服的重要性。
（图：Alla和我在乌克兰赫尔松市中心报道????????版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
然而，乌克兰的优势不仅来自战场上的技术创新，还来自对俄罗斯腹地的压缩。根据Greenreport、ISPI、《太阳報》（Il Sole 24 Ore）等机构，乌克兰对俄方石油与港口基础设施的打击已破坏了莫斯科约40%的出口能力，迫使产量削减，许多分析人士认为这种削减是不可避免的。
这意味着决定战争的不仅在顿巴斯的杀戮区，更在于基辅是否能不断提高支撑俄军攻势的经济与后勤机器成本。
（图：Alla和我在尼古拉耶夫录制了这些影像版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
莫斯科以白天袭击作为回应，因为单纯打击已不足以奏效；它必须保持持续压力，以更不可预测的模式探测并消耗乌方防空体系。在白天，平民处于暴露状态，防空系统更易被识别，从而更容易遭到干扰。这也是乌克兰近乎每天受到约一千架次俄罗斯航空器机持续攻击的原因。
莫斯科将消耗转化为领土收益的方式正陷入危机。基辅处于更有利的位置，因为它更有效适应了战争。西方是否能在俄罗斯再次调整之前做出改变，则仍有待观察。
（图：Alla与Rocky??????????????，一名受伤的乌克兰士兵????????????乌克兰在利沃夫为我们的旗帜签名????????版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
我们尽最大努力从几乎没有媒体敢进入的地带进行真实的一手报道，这意味着我们长期生活在杀伤区。我们承担风险，但若没有你们宝贵的支持，我们的声音将无从传出。若没有远方的勇敢的人们转发分享我们的文章，它们将无人问津。我们的报道会被忽视，我们的努力将付诸流水。这里还有大量工作要做，周围的人们境况同样艰难。
我们正在更新筹款活动，感谢每一位加入我们、帮助修复俄罗斯破坏的人们。仅靠一家勇敢的报纸为我们每篇文章支付微薄稿酬以维持前线报道极为困难。因此，我们感激所有支持并信任我们使命的善良人们。
哪怕是小小的捐助也有助益。
我们会持续为你们更新事态进展。
谢谢大家，亲爱的朋友们????????
如果你认可我们的工作，请支持我们????????
在过去三年里，自乌克兰大规模战争爆发以来，作为自由撰稿人，我们一直在乌克兰战争的所有前线进行报道
Paypal捐款链接：https://www.paypal.com/pools/c/9nxoMcbYLF
