Araghchi（伊朗外长），4月17日X推文：

"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran."

Trump，几小时后Truth Social：

"THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED."

分析

Araghchi说"completely open"，但用"停火剩余期间"限定到只剩5天，用"coordinated route"保住了主权、航道、和每船200万美元的收费权——所谓"完全开放"，实质是"以色列不打黎巴嫩，我就不关门口的路"。Trump同样用"completely open"，但加了"封锁继续针对伊朗"和"交易100%完成之前不算数"两道伏笔，把外交协议包装成还没签的"TRANSACTION"。双方用同一个词各自对内宣布胜利——Araghchi对德黑兰说"我们守住了主权"，Trump对华盛顿说"我逼他们就范了"——这是外交最高级的"建设性模糊"，谁都没让步，谁都声称赢了。核问题、代理人、赔款、主权归属一个都没解决，伊朗还在停火期间清理导弹基地，Mojtaba至今一字未发。市场抢"completely open"四个字让Dow涨524点、Brent闪崩到$89，但Polymarket上"4月30日前达成永久协议"只给3%概率——真正的binary时刻不是今天，是4月22日停火到期那一天。