特朗普如何将美国变成“流氓国家”：哈佛学者

Stephen Walt, Harvard Kennedy School  2026/03/27

stephen_walt@harvard.edu

https://www.mexc.com/news/984832

Nick Hilden  March 26, 2026 | 02:10PM ET

https://www.alternet.org/how-trump-turned-america-into-a-rogue-state/

自特朗普第二任期开始以来，美国对伙伴国加征关税，破坏与北约的关系，威胁入侵加拿大和格陵兰等非敌对国家，并在未获得盟友支持或批准的情况下对伊朗发动战争。哈佛大学国际关系学教授斯蒂芬·M·沃尔特表示，由于这些以及其他原因，美国已经沦为“流氓国家”，如今“世界各国都不得不思考如何应对”。

沃尔特在《外交政策》杂志上撰文指出，“特朗普第二任期的破坏性、危害性和危险性远远超出了几乎所有人的预期”。他认为，造成这种情况的主要原因有三个。

首先，美国的确“非常强大”，而且它能够也一直在利用这种力量伤害其他国家，无论“有意还是无意”。在特朗普的领导下，美国或许正在推行一些会随着时间推移而削弱自身的政策——从加倍依赖化石燃料到摧毁科研机构，再到攻击移民——但就目前而言，美国仍然拥有压倒性的经济、军事和政治实力。

其次，沃尔特认为，美国已经从一个政治霸权国家转变为一个掠夺性霸权国家，"利用数十年来积累的影响力来剥削盟友和对手”。这导致美国对几乎所有人，包括其最亲密的伙伴，都采取了敌对立场，对待外国领导人“毫不掩饰地蔑视他们，却期望他们中的大多数人做出屈辱的顺从和效忠”。随着伊朗局势演变为全球性问题，很明显，“本届政府要么不了解其行动将如何影响其他国家，要么根本不在乎。”

最终，导致这一切的关键因素在于，“美国外交政策如今掌握在一群极其无能的官员手中，从总统到普通官员皆是如此。”巨大的权力被赋予了那些显然不知所措的人，而他们的一举一动都可能造成灾难。

更糟糕的是，“特朗普卸任后，其中一些问题将难以纠正。”不仅国家的制度能力已被“掏空”，而且美国已经证明其在极端之间摇摆不定的倾向。即便下一任总统的立场与特朗普不同，谁又能保证选民在下次选举中不会再次转向类似的候选人呢？

沃尔特说，世界各国必须采取重大行动来应对一个失控的美国。这意味着要通过建立联盟来平衡力量，以制衡美国的影响力，同时避免盲目追随美国的掠夺性行径。这意味着要努力引导美国的外交政策远离其最危险的冲动，并实现贸易伙伴多元化。这意味着要学会对美国的要求说“不”——就像大多数领导人对特朗普在伊朗战争中寻求帮助的请求所做的那样——并接受美国在欠考虑的冒险行动最终失败时所遭受的惩罚。

沃尔特总结道：“随着美国的形象从一个善意但有时也会犯错的全球强权，转变为一个冷酷无情、残忍无情、惯于撒谎、只顾自身利益的国家，世界其他国家将不得不与之对抗。”

沃尔特写道：“一个有远见的大国会克制地运用自身力量，尽可能遵守普遍接受的准则，认识到即使是亲密的盟友也会有自己的目标，并努力与其他国家达成对各方都有利的安排。在过去75年的大部分时间里，美国在这方面做得相当不错，并从中获益匪浅，但其现任领导人正在迅速抛弃这种智慧。”

How Trump turned America into a 'rogue state': Harvard scholar

Author: Alternet  2026/03/27

https://www.mexc.com/news/984832?

Since the beginning of the second Trump Administration, the United States has attacked partners with tariffs, shredded its ties to NATO, threatened to invade unhostile nations like Canada and Greenland, and launched a war against Iran without the support or approval of allies. For these and other reasons, says Harvard professor of international relations Stephen M. Walt, the U.S. has become a “rogue state" and now “every country in the world is having to figure out how to deal” with it.

“The second Trump administration has been far more disruptive, damaging and dangerous” than just about anyone predicted, writes Walt in Foreign Policy. He says there are three primary factors driving this.

First, the U.S. is simply “very powerful,” and it can and has been leveraging that power to harm other nations whether “intentionally or inadvertently.” Under Trump, the U.S. may be pursuing many policies that will weaken it over time — from doubling down on fossil fuels to destroying its scientific institutions to attacking immigrants — but for now, the country still wields inordinate economic, military, and political might.

Second, Walt argues that the U.S. has gone from a political hegemon to a predatory hegemon, “exploiting positions of leverage built up over decades to exploit allies and adversaries alike.” This has involved the assumption of a hostile stance toward nearly everyone, including the country’s closest partners, treating foreign leaders “with ill-disguised contempt while expecting demeaning acts of submission and fealty from most of them.” And as the situation in Iran spirals into global consequences, it has become clear that “the administration either didn’t understand how its actions would affect other states or simply didn’t care.”

Finally, a key factor driving all of this is the fact that “U.S. foreign policy is now in the hands of a remarkably incompetent set of officials, from the president on down.” Immense power has been placed in the hands of people who clearly don’t know what they’re doing, and who consequently cause catastrophes with their every move.

Worse still, “some of these features are not going to be easy to correct after Trump leaves office.” Not only have the country’s institutional capacities been “hollowed out,” but the U.S. has already proven its tendency to go back and forth between extremes. Even if the next president doesn’t share Trump’s positions, who’s to say that voters wouldn’t swing back toward a similar candidate in the next election?

The world, says Walt, is going to have to take major action to manage an America gone rogue. That means balancing power by building alliances to offset U.S. influence, while avoiding the urge to jump on the country’s predatory bandwagon. It means working to manipulate U.S. foreign policy away from its most dangerous impulses, and diversifying trade partners. It means learning to say no to American demands — as most leaders have in response to Trump’s pleas for help with his war on Iran — and allowing the U.S. to look bad when its poorly considered ventures blow up in its face.

“As the United States’ image shifts from that of a well-intentioned if sometimes mistaken global power to one that is uncaring, cruel, reflexively dishonest, and out only for itself,” Walt concludes, the rest of the world is going to have to stand against it.

“A far-sighted great power will use its power with restraint, adhere to widely held norms whenever possible, recognize that even close allies will have their own agendas, and work to fashion arrangements with others from which all parties benefit,” writes Walt. “The United States did this tolerably well for most of the past 75 years and benefited greatly, but its present leaders are rapidly tossing that wisdom overboard.”