内部人士称,HS2注定会失败——因为“英国国内存在问题”。
HS2 was doomed to be a mess, say insiders - because of a 'problem in this country'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2l8kq52y8o
凯特·兰布尔(Kate Lamble)个人简介 凯特·兰布尔,《脱轨:HS2的故事》节目主持人
“我现在无法回答这些问题,”彼得·亨迪勋爵说道。自修建一条沿着英格兰西海岸延伸的高速铁路的构想首次公布以来,已经过去了15年多。我向铁路部长询问,这条铁路何时才能完工?以及至关重要的,它的成本是多少?
但他明确表示,没有人知道英国这项最大的基础设施项目的最终费用会是多少。
我问道,政府在如此巨大的不确定性下仍然坚持修建这条铁路,这是否让他感到担忧? “哦,是啊,我们对此非常不满。当然你们会这么想……”
公共账目委员会将高速铁路二号线(HS2)描述为大型项目管理失败的典型案例。该项目目前预算超支数百亿英镑,工期也落后了近十年。
由交通部成立的HS2有限公司承认,其未能控制成本。
有报道称,目前缩短后的伯明翰至伦敦线路可能耗资810亿英镑。考虑到通货膨胀因素,这意味着至少要花费1000亿英镑,但最终只建成了135英里的铁路。
现在,许多相关人士——从公务员、部长、公司内部人士到HS2的最初设计者——都向我讲述了事情究竟出了多大的差错。
当然,该项目饱受管理不善、盲目乐观以及在处理沿线居民房屋纠纷方面的失败之苦。
但一位近十年来一直质疑HS2项目的特许测量师提出了另一点。他认为,这远非仅仅是决策失误造成的,背后可能还有更深层次的原因。
这位测量师说:“在这个国家,任何建设项目的成本一直都是个根本性的问题,因为我们生活在一个面积小、人口众多、拥有大量房产的民主岛屿上。”
这就引出了一个问题:HS2项目是否注定会因为英国的地理环境和政治体制而遭遇重大困难?如果真是如此,HS2项目的未来又将何去何从?
速度需求带来的问题
HS2项目最初的构想是为了提升西海岸干线的运力;这条连接伦敦和格拉斯哥的铁路线长达700英里,错综复杂,是由维多利亚时代的几位企业家各自为政、拼凑而成。
高速铁路二号线(HS2)的早期工程师们提出了一个未来愿景,旨在使HS2能够运行世界上速度最快、班次最频繁的列车。
与国际上的其他方案相比,该计划令人印象深刻:在法国,高速列车的时速为200英里;而HS2的设计目标是能够承受250英里/小时的速度。在日本,东京和大阪之间每小时有12趟列车运行;而HS2在同一时间内能够以每小时18趟的速度往返于伦敦尤斯顿车站。这意味着每三分钟就有一趟列车。
HS2有限公司 HS2列车效果图 HS2的设计目标是能够承受250英里/小时的速度
然而,为了实现这一目标,铁路必须尽可能地笔直。在村庄、林地或运河附近减速转弯是不可行的。更快的列车也需要更复杂的道岔和更坚固的板式轨道。
但政府审查报告显示,这一雄心壮志产生了潜移默化的文化影响——建造最佳线路的愿景“推动了项目规模的扩大,并大幅增加了成本”。
“这也使项目偏离了最初提高网络容量的前提。”
图示:HS2铁路线路及已取消路段
安德鲁·米尼是咨询公司Oxera的交通运输主管,他曾为2020年向政府提交的HS2项目奥克维审查报告提供咨询。
安德鲁指出,当时并未进行任何分析,来比较如果列车以欧洲之星在英格兰南部提供的较慢速度运行,将会节省多少成本。
“我认为应该对这些方面进行非常详细的评估,并就这些权衡取舍展开公开讨论。”
来自法国的警告
但与HS2的最初设计者交谈后发现,这一宏伟目标背后有着清晰的战略。
HS2的首任技术总监安德鲁·麦克诺顿回忆起他参加的一次会议…… 2009年,法国铁路运营商主席纪尧姆·佩皮发出警告。
他的警告是:“不要犯建造过时铁路的错误。”随着标准的不断发展,法国高速列车的速度已经远远超过了现有轨道的承载能力。
既然如此,何必费力建造一条在竣工之时就已经过时的铁路呢?
麦克诺顿先生决定为英国的铁路项目选择一种能够适应未来更高速度列车的方案,以确保其面向未来。
他明白这将使成本增加约10%,但他相信这是值得的。
“你们让我们损失惨重。”
又一亿英镑
当政客们着手争取批准高铁二号线快速直达时,他们又遇到了另一个障碍。
这条线路的大部分路段都穿过农村选区,这些选区大多由保守党议员代表。这些议员明确告诉时任首相戴维·卡梅伦,他们希望该项目获得批准,但需要进行认真的谈判和妥协。
为了促成此事,部长们选择了一种不同寻常的方案:一项混合法案,这是自1992年以来颁布的第三项此类法案。
这类法案允许议员们投票决定某项基础设施项目是否应该启动,但同时也赋予了直接受影响的人们反对该项目并要求修改细节的权利。
路透社/托比·梅尔维尔 一名行人走过HS2高速铁路的宣传广告牌。HS2高铁项目必须途经保守党控制的乡村选区,许多议员告诉戴维·卡梅伦,他们只有在做出重大妥协的情况下才会支持该项目。
各地方议会、企业和个人在政府委员会面前陈述诉求,要求修建隔音屏障,并为失去绿地的社区提供经济补偿。最后一刻的谈判往往在委员会外的走廊进行。
这种做法使得法案具有一定的灵活性,但批评人士认为,法案也过于复杂且成本高昂。
杰弗里·克利夫顿·布朗爵士是保守党议员,也是负责听取请愿书的委员会成员之一。“我清楚地记得,一位交通大臣在下午的会议结束后说:‘干得好,杰弗里,你今天下午又让我们损失了几亿英镑。’”
西卡莫尔峡谷那棵树的命运揭示了一个更深层次的问题
特朗普的关税政策正给英国仅存的钢铁城镇带来巨大压力
非法香烟的销售表明英国商业街存在更深层次的问题
一份电子表格显示,由此产生了数千项额外支出——其中包括:为一座教堂安装隔热层,拨款25万英镑;新建一座公园,拨款50万英镑(此外还为社区基金额外拨款1000万英镑);以及为一座列入保护名录的饮水喷泉翻新,拨款1万英镑。
巨额成本的增加是为了避免或弥补个人的不便。
PA媒体 首条已完工的高铁隧道一英里长路段的内部照片 隧道和隔音屏障是高铁二号线(HS2)中最昂贵的部分
这些措施中最昂贵的部分之一就是隧道。经过公众咨询和混合法案的制定,如今的设计方案中包含了大量的护栏——以及隔音屏障和地下轨道铺设路段——以至于从伦敦到伯明翰的49分钟旅程中,乘客只有9分钟的时间可以欣赏到乡村景色。
由交通部成立的HS2有限公司承认未能控制总体成本,并表示交付成果并未达到其所称的早期不切实际的预期。
英国的规划体系是否应该为此负责?
然而,谈判和妥协最终奏效。2013年10月,伦敦至伯明翰HS2第一段的最终投票以超过350票的优势获得通过。该法案得到了各主要政党的支持,部长们也意识到HS2的未来一片光明。
“我当时被告知,(这项法案)基本上算是批准了规划,”帕特里克·麦克劳克林说道,他曾在2012年至2016年担任交通大臣。
“当然,后来证明并非如此。”
PA Media 一名HS2工作人员站在老橡树公地车站的隧道前。议员们在保守党、工党和自由民主党议员的支持下,批准了HS2的第一阶段工程。
实际上,这项混合法案只提供了“推定规划许可”——HS2表示,他们此后还需要从地方议会和其他机构获得8000多项许可。
而且,许可并非总是能够获得批准。
以白金汉郡的杜宾斯巷为例。今年4月,当地议会审议了HS2的规划许可申请,该申请旨在升级一条通往附近田地的农场小路。这项工程是为了建造一个地下监测箱,用于监测地下水位,而这又是附近山丘隧道挖掘的必要条件。 HS2警告称,如果没有这项措施,延误可能会造成数千万英镑的损失。
但由于施工期间道路交通量将暂时增加,超过800名当地居民签署了一份反对该工程的请愿书:在12周的施工期间,将有60辆货车需要抵达工地。
此外,规划许可申请也被驳回——这又增加了一项潜在的成本。
NurPhoto via Getty Images 爱德华·利斯特(Edward Lister)曾任伦敦副市长,后担任鲍里斯·约翰逊首相的幕僚长,他认为规划体系存在问题。
爱德华·利斯特于2011年至2016年担任伦敦副市长,后担任首相鲍里斯·约翰逊的幕僚长,他认为英国的规划体系存在缺陷。
“必须打破这种僵局,”他辩称。“如果这些是你们的大型项目,那么它们就必须获得批准。”
他希望改革司法审查制度,使阻挠此类项目变得更加困难。
就像HS2项目一样,一路走来,官司缠身。
亟待解决的重大问题
这一切都提醒我们,在英国进行建设一直以来都面临着其独特的挑战。例如,法国拥有超过1000英里的高速铁路,但它也拥有更大的国土面积,可以穿越更多开阔的乡村地区。
与此同时,中国拥有近30000英里的高速铁路,但它也拥有集中化的权力体系和更少的抗议权利。
这不禁让人想起那位特许测量师的观察:“我们生活在一个人口众多、拥有产权的小型民主岛屿上。”
这本身就带来了挑战——这意味着,如果英国想要建设“大型”项目——无论是核电站、水库还是铁路,我们作为一个社会都需要面对一些重大问题。我们究竟在多大程度上愿意为了国家利益而让个人生活受到影响?我们应该如何评估长达一个世纪的基础设施投资?这些问题决定着我们制度的运作方式。
“我们现有的流程太陈旧、成本太高、太复杂了。肯定有更快捷的方法,”这位特许测量师说道。
盖蒂图片社 戴着白帽子、穿着橙色夹克的工人们在HS2高铁工地旁工作。安德鲁·麦克诺顿乐观地表示:“等它开通的时候……我仍然相信人们会说,‘哦,天哪,我们赶紧把剩下的工程也建完吧。’”
安德鲁·米尼认为,一个根本问题在于政客与公众的沟通方式。
“我们没有足够的信心说,‘好了,这就是我们要建的东西,我们赶紧把它建好吧。’”他辩称,“我们往往会改变主意,迎合民意。”
而对另一些人来说,所有这些关乎存亡的问题都比不上他们认为HS2本身就是一个错误的项目。 “你必须选择正确的项目,”曾担任鲍里斯·约翰逊和里希·苏纳克特别顾问的安德鲁·吉利根说道,“而这个项目从一开始就选错了。”
“解决我们交通危机的办法是做很多不起眼的小事,比如修建公交专用道、有轨电车系统和新建车站,”他继续说道,“而不是搞一个实际上只会惠及全国少数人的大型项目。”
如果未来的政府真的决定采取小规模的方案,那么同样需要协商和妥协的根本问题依然存在。如果没有解决方案,HS2高铁项目最终只会沦为又一个被政治现实扼杀的项目。
题图来源:Christopher Furlong via Getty
完整的十集系列节目《脱轨:HS2的故事》现已在BBC Sounds上线,由Whistledown为BBC Radio 4制作。
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HS2 was doomed to be a mess, say insiders - because of a 'problem in this country'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2l8kq52y8o
Kate Lamble Presenter, Derailed: The story of HS2"I can't answer those questions currently," says Lord Peter Hendy. More than 15 years have passed since the idea to build a high-speed railway up the west coast of England was first announced, and I am asking the rail minister when it will be finished. And, crucially, how much it will cost.
Only he is making it very clear that nobody knows what the final bill for Britain's biggest infrastructure project might be.
Does it concern him that the government remains committed to the railway despite this deep uncertainty? I ask. "Oh yeah, we're dead bothered by that. Of course you would be..."
The Public Accounts Committee describes High Speed 2 (HS2) as a casebook example of how not to run a major project. It is currently tens of billions of pounds over budget and around a decade behind schedule.
HS2 Ltd, the company created by the Department for Transport, accepts it failed to keep costs under control
Reports state that the now-shortened line between Birmingham and London could cost £81bn. Accounting for inflation, that would mean at least £100bn will be spent, but only 135 miles of railway built.
Now, many people involved - from civil servants, ministers and company insiders to HS2's original designers - have told me just how badly things went wrong.
Certainly, the project has suffered from mismanagement, misplaced optimism and failures when dealing with homeowners whose properties were in its path.
But one chartered surveyor, who has been challenging HS2 for almost a decade, brought up another point. One that suggests that - far from this solely being down to poor decision-making - something greater was at play all along.
"There has always been a fundamental problem in this country with the cost of building anything," the surveyor says, "because we live on a small, highly populated, property-owning, democratic island."
Which begs the question, was HS2 predestined to encounter major problems simply on the basis of the UK's geography and political system? And if that is the case, where should HS2 go from here?
HS2 was initially conceived as a way to increase capacity on the West Coast Mainline; a tangled 700 miles of track between London and Glasgow, which was built in a patchwork fashion by competing Victorian entrepreneurs.
High Speed 2's early engineers proposed a vision of the future, making HS2 capable of running the fastest, most frequent trains in the world.
Sized up alongside the international alternatives, the plan was impressive: in France, high-speed trains run at 200 miles per hour; HS2 was to be built to withstand 250mph. In Japan, 12 trains run between Tokyo and Osaka every hour; HS2 would be capable of running 18 trains an hour going in and out of London Euston in that time. That's one every three minutes.
HS2 was to be built to withstand speeds of 250mph
To have any chance of doing this, however, the railway had to be as straight as possible. Slowing down to take bends around villages, woodland or canals wasn't an option. Faster trains also required more sophisticated junctions, and stronger slab track.
But government reviews now suggest this ambition had an insidious cultural impact - and that the vision to build the best possible line is what "drove the scope and dramatically increased cost.
"It also took the project away from the initial premise of increasing network capacity."

Andrew Meaney is head of transport at the consultancy Oxera and advised the Oakervee review of HS2 that reported to government in 2020.
Andrew suggests no analysis was done to set out comparisons of what the savings would be if trains ran at the slower speeds of Eurostar services in the south of England.
"I think those sorts of things should have been assessed in quite a lot of detail and a public conversation had about those trade-offs."
But talking to HS2's original designers, there was a clear strategy behind this vaulting ambition.
Andrew McNaughton, HS2's first technical director, remembers being at a conference in 2009 and hearing the chair of the French railway operator, Guillaume Pepy, deliver a warning.
That is: "don't make the mistake of building yesterday's railway", with standards evolving, French high-speed trains could now go much faster than their tracks would allow.
Why bother building something that would already be out of date at the moment of completion?
Mr McNaughton decided to future-proof the UK work by selecting an option that appeared capable of handling faster trains further into the future.
He understood that this would add roughly 10% to costs - and believed it would be worth it.
As politicians set about trying to get approval to make HS2 run straight and fast, they came across another obstacle.
Much of the route cut through rural constituencies, represented mostly by Conservative MPs, who made it clear to then-Prime Minister David Cameron that their approval for the project would require serious negotiation and compromise.
Ministers picked something unusual to make it happen: a hybrid bill, only the third of its kind enacted since 1992.
These allow MPs to vote on whether a piece of infrastructure should go ahead, but those directly affected are given the right to petition against it and ask for details to be changed.
HS2 had to run through mostly Conservative rural constituencies, where many MPs told David Cameron they'd only support it if major compromises were made
Councils, businesses and individuals made their case in front of a government committee asking for everything from noise barriers to financial compensation for communities losing green space. Last-minute negotiations often took place in the corridors outside.
The approach meant the bill was flexible - but critics have argued it was also needlessly complex and expensive.
Sir Geoffrey Clifton Brown was a Conservative MP and was one of the committee members who heard out petitions. "I remember very clearly one of the Secretaries of State for Transport, after an afternoon session, say, well done, Geoffrey, you've just cost us another couple of hundred million this afternoon."
A spreadsheet shows the thousands of assurances which were added as a result - among them, £250,000 to insulate a church, £500,000 for a new park (on top of an extra £10m for a community fund), as well as £10,000 to renovate a listed drinking fountain.
Vast cost was added in order to avoid or compensate for individual inconvenience.
Tunnels and noise barriers were the most expensive parts of HS2
One of the most expensive parts of these measures were the tunnels. Through public consultation and the hybrid bill, the design now features so many of them - along with noise barriers and cuttings, where track is laid below ground level - that on a 49-minute journey from London to Birmingham passengers will only have a view of the countryside for nine.
HS2 Ltd, the company created by the Department for Transport, accepts it failed to keep overall costs under control and says delivery has not matched what it describes as the unrealistic early expectations.
Negotiation and compromise however, worked. The final vote for the first leg of HS2 between London and Birmingham was won by more than 350 votes in October 2013. The bill was supported across the main parties, and ministers understood HS2 had a clear road ahead.
"I was told that [the bill] basically gave the planning approval," says Patrick McLoughlin, who was the Transport Secretary between 2012 and 2016.
"Of course, it subsequently turns out that that was not the case."
MPs backed the first part of HS2 with cross-bench support from Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems
In reality, the hybrid bill only offered "deemed planning permission" - HS2 say they have since needed to acquire more than 8,000 further permissions from councils and other agencies.
It hasn't always been given.
Take the case of Dobbins Lane in Buckinghamshire. In April, the local council considered planning permission for HS2 to upgrade a farm track running into a nearby field. This work was needed in order to build an underground box to monitor groundwater levels, which in turn was a requirement of a tunnel being dug through the nearby hills. Without it, HS2 warned, delays could cost tens of millions.
But more than 800 local residents signed a petition against works because of a temporary increase in road traffic: 60 lorries would need to reach the site during a 12 week period.
And the request for planning permission was rejected - another potential cost added.
Ed Lister, who worked as Deputy Mayor of London and later as Boris Johnson's chief of staff, says the planning system is to blame
Ed Lister, who was Deputy Mayor of London between 2011 and 2016 and later served as Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, blames the UK's planning system.
"You've got to break that log-jam," he argues. "If these are your big projects, then they have to go through."
He wants changes to the judicial review system to make it harder to frustrate projects such as HS2 through the courts.
All of this is a reminder that building in Britain has always had its own unique challenges. France, for example, has more than 1,000 miles of high-speed rail - but it also has a greater land mass, with much more open empty countryside to sweep through.
China, meanwhile, has nearly 30,000 miles of high-speed rail - but it also has a centralised power system and fewer protest rights.
Which brings it back to the chartered surveyor who observed, "We live on a small, highly populated, property-owning, democratic island".
That in itself poses challenges - meaning that if Britain wants to build 'big' - whether it's a nuclear power station, reservoir or railway, we need to confront big questions as a society. How deep is our appetite for individuals to have their lives impacted in the name of national interest? How should we value century long investment in infrastructure? These are the questions that govern how our system works.
"The processes that we've got are so archaic and too costly and too complicated. There's surely got to be a quicker way of doing it," says the chartered surveyor.
Andrew McNaughton is optimistic: "When it's opened… I still believe that people will go, oh, for heaven's sake, let's just get on with the rest of it"
For Andrew Meaney, a fundamental problem is the way politicians communicate with the public.
"We don't have the confidence to say, right, this is what we're building and let's just go and get on and build it," he argues. "We tend to change our mind and we sort of bend with public opinion."
For others, all these existential questions will always be secondary to the fact they think HS2 was simply the wrong project. "You've got to choose the right projects," argues Andrew Gilligan, who acted as a special advisor to Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak. "And this was the wrong project right from the start."
"The answer to our transport crisis is lots of boring little things like bus lanes and tram systems and new stations," he continues, "and not one grand mega-project that is in fact only going to touch a handful of people in the country."
If future governments did decide that small was the way forwards, the same fundamental issues of consent and compromise would still be ever present. Without answers HS2 will remain simply the latest project to be undone by political reality.
Top image credit: Christopher Furlong via Getty
The full 10-part series "Derailed: The Story of HS2" available now on BBC Sounds is a Whistledown production for BBC Radio 4.
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