汤因比预言：中华文化将统一世界

11月26日

http://www.uou-edu.com/dfwh8.html

阿诺德·汤因比是英国著名历史学家。他的20卷巨著《历史研究》与斯宾格勒的《西方的没落》和吉本的《罗马的兴衰》并列，被誉为“洞察20世纪西方文明衰落的巨型历史博物馆”。但与斯宾格勒不同，他试图以基督的救赎精神拯救西方，古罗马的思想引领他走向全球一体化，使他确信人类的统一性，因此被誉为“全球统一的先知”。以下摘录自汤因比晚年与日本社会活动家池田大作合著的对话录《展望21世纪》，看看他是如何预言世界统一的：

中华民族的美德在屈辱的世纪中依然发挥着作用。这种美德也体现在移居世界各地的海外华人身上。

东亚拥有丰富的历史遗产，使其成为世界地理和文化的统一轴心。在我看来，这些遗产体现在以下几个方面：

第一，中华民族的经验。在过去的二十一个世纪里，中国维持着遍布全球的帝国，是真正区域性国家的典范。

第二，在漫长的中华历史进程中，中华民族逐渐培养了博大精深的天下精神。

第三，儒家世界观中的人文主义。

第四，儒家和佛教的理性主义。

第五，东亚人对宇宙的奥秘十分敏感，认为试图征服宇宙终将失败。我认为这是道家思想中最宝贵的内涵。

第六，这种直觉是佛教、道家和中国哲学（除如今已消亡的法家外）的共同之处。人类的目标并非凌驾于自身之上征服自然，而是要坚信人必须与自然和谐共处。

第七，过去，无论在军事还是非军事领域，科学都曾应用于现代科技竞争，西方国家一度占据主导地位，但东亚国家最终战胜了他们。日本人已经证明了这一点。

第八，日本人和越南人敢于挑战西方，这种勇气值得我们铭记。我希望这种勇气在未来能够延续，并在人类历史的下一个阶段，为解决人类问题做出建设性贡献。

在现代社会，我亲身感受到中国人能够胜任任何职业，并且能够维持高水平的家庭生活。无论国家处于衰落还是动荡时期，中国人都能坚守这一美德。

未来统一世界的，或许不是西欧国家，也不是西欧的某些国家，而是中国。正因为中国对未来的政治使命具有如此重要的政治意义，所以它在当今世界享有极高的威望。过去两千二百年间，中国的统一政府不仅在极短的时间内实现了数亿人民的政治统一，而且统一的中国在所有受保护国家中都享??有政治主权的认可。文化的影响力甚至渗透到遥远的地区，即所谓的“中华王国”。事实上，自公元前221年左右以来，中国一直是半个世界的中心。

英国击败拿破仑后，立即发动鸦片战争，这唤醒了中国。

未来，中国将在人类社会中扮演怎样的角色？

由于西方民族势力的扩张和短暂统治，地球人类社会摆脱了这种统治力量，未来也将如此。在人类社会的最终格局中，中国仅仅是三国之一，还是五大强国之一，亦或是成为世界“王国”，这才是中国未来的使命？

这关系到全人类，尤其是与中国关系密切的苏联、日本和美国。

可以从东亚大陆沿岸和关岛附近的海岛撤退，然后从夏威夷撤退。曾经需要撤退到美国西海岸，美国和中国就可以与整个太平洋隔绝。但如今，地理距离已不再重要。火箭的发明使浩瀚的太平洋变得像一条小溪。所有国家，包括中国，都在彼此的直线距离之内。这就是当今的现实。

所以，我认为，当全人类发展成一个统一的社会时，那或许就是世界统一之日。如今，在原子时代，这种武力征服——这种统一地球广袤区域的传统方式——已经难以实现。与此同时，我所预见的和平统一必须以地理和文化轴线为中心，并不断完善和扩展。我预感，这条轴线不在美国、欧洲和苏联，而是在东亚。

东亚地区由中国、日本、韩国、越南组成，人口众多。这些国家的活力、勤劳、勇气和智慧丝毫不逊色于世界其他任何国家。从地理角度来看，从中华文化和佛教的共同传承来看，或者从现代西方文明不得不面对的共同问题来看，它们之间有着紧密的联系。就中国而言，数千年来，中国成功地将数亿人民在政治和文化上团结起来，其成就远超世界其他任何国家。他们展现了政治和文化统一的能力，并取得了举世瞩目的成就。这种统一是当今世界的绝对需求。中国和东亚各国人民之所以能够合作，在人类统一这一不可或缺的进程中发挥引领作用，原因就在于此。

如果我的推测没有错，那么可以预见，世界统一将在和平中实现。这是原子时代唯一可行的道路。然而，尽管是中华民族，却从未真正和平过。战国时期，如同古希腊和近代欧洲一样，也曾经历过分裂和斗争。然而，汉朝之后，战国时期的好战精神被摒弃。汉朝的开国皇帝刘邦早在公元前202年就完成了中国的统一。在此之前，秦始皇的政治统一是通过武力实现的。因此，在他去世后，出现了民族主义复兴的契机。在汉朝，刘邦在地方分权和世界主义之间保持了中华民族情感的平衡。与秦始皇的魅力和专制统治不同，他巧妙地运用自己的生命来实现这一目标。

未来想要统一世界的人必须具备世界主义精神，正如中国历史上第二位统治者所取得的巨大成就一样。同时，他们也必须具备实现最终目标的能力。世界统一是避免人类集体自杀的途径。在这方面，目前准备最充分的是两千年来发展出独特思维方式的中国人。不是在半个世界，而是在整个人类能够生活和社交的地球上，统一的未来势在必行，而汉代刘邦正是这一理念的典范。

编者按：

外国历史学家的言论似乎值得中国人深思。外国人看到了我们文化和历史的卓越地位，甚至在他们眼中，我们的文化或许能够统一世界。

Toynbee predicts: Chinese culture will unify the world

November 26, 2016
http://www.uou-edu.com/dfwh8.html
Arnold Toynbe is a famous English historian. His 20 volume masterpiece "historical research" and Spengler's "decline of the west" and the "Rome gibbon early rise and fall" in parallel, is called "the giant History Museum, is the most famous contemporary American philosophy professor Li Weiyu of human civilization through the heritage of the" most and most sustained meditation". He and Spengler have the same thing: they both have insight into the decline of Western civilization in twentieth Century. But he did not like Spengler, depicts a terrible hopeless prospect for the west, he tries to salvation spirit of Christ to save the west. His research was inherited from British empiricism, and his core ideas were influenced by the French philosopher Bergson, whose inspiration came from Gerd of germany. His early studies of ancient Rome led to the idea of a global integration that convinced him of the unity of human beings and was thus called a "global unified prophet"". Below, I will extract from his old age and Japanese social activist Ikeda co authored the dialogue: "outlook twenty-first Century", take a look at how he predicted the unity of the world:
The virtue of the Chinese nation has continued to function in the humiliating century. This kind of virtue is also embodied in the activities of overseas Chinese people who have migrated to different parts of the world.
East Asia has many historical legacies, which can make it the unifying geographical and cultural axis of the world. In my opinion, these heritages have the following aspects:
First, the experience of the Chinese nation. In the past twenty-one centuries, China has maintained an empire all over the world and has been an example of a truly regional country.
Second, in the long course of Chinese history, the Chinese nation gradually cultivated the spirit of the world.
Third, humanism in the Confucian worldview.
Fourth, the rationalism of Confucianism and buddhism.
Fifth, East Asians are sensitive to the mystery of the universe, and believe that the universe will be defeated if it wants to dominate it. I think this is the most precious sense of taoism.
Sixth, this intuition is Buddhism, Taoism and Chinese all genres of Philosophy (except today extinct Legalists) have in common. The aim of man is not to dominate the nature beyond his own conceit, but to have a belief that he must live in harmony with nature.
Seventh, in the past, in military and non military two areas, science was applied to the modern competition of technology, while the Westerners were dominant, but East Asian countries could defeat them. The Japanese have proved it.
Eighth, the courage of the Japanese and Vietnamese to dare to challenge the west. This courage will continue in the future, but I hope that in the next stage of human history, it can contribute to the constructive cause of solving human problems.
In the modern world, I have personally learned that the Chinese are competent for any profession and that they can maintain a high standard of family life. The Chinese are able to hold on to this virtue no matter when the country is declining or when it is actually in turmoil.
It is probably not the Western European countries, nor the countries of Western Europe, but China that will unify the world in the future. And because China has such a political signal for future political missions, China has an amazing prestige in the world today. China's unified government in the past two thousand and two hundred years, in addition to a very short period of time, has been politically hundreds of millions of people unified as a whole. Moreover, a unified China is recognized in the political sovereignty of all protected states. The influence of culture even permeates far away regions, what is called the kingdom of china". As a matter of fact, China has been the center of half the world since almost 221 bc. In the last five hundred years, the world has been united in every field of politics and in the west. I am afraid it is China's destiny to bring more than half the world and bring political unity and peace to the world as a whole.
As for the past China, Napoleon said, "don't wake the sleeping giant."". The English defeated Napoleon and immediately launched the Opium War, which awakened china.
What role will China play in human society in the future?
Because of the expansion and temporary rule of the Western Ethnic forces, the earth human society has been rid of this ruling power and will continue in the future. In the last row into the earth in the human society, China just stay in the three countries, one of the five powers or more powerful position? Or become the world's "the kingdom", is the future of the China mission?
This is a matter of concern for all mankind, especially the Soviet Union and Japan, which are closer to china. The United States can withdraw from the East Asian mainland coast and the sea islands to Guam, and then withdraw from Hawaii. Once needed to be withdrawn to the west coast of the United States, the United States and China can be separated from the entire Pacific ocean. But today, simply geographical distance is no longer important. The invention of rockets led to the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean as narrow as a stream. All countries, including China, are within each other's straight-line range. That's the reality of today.
So, in my opinion, when all mankind grows into a single society, it may be the day of world unification. Today in the atomic age, this unified conquest by force - the traditional way of unifying the vast part of the earth - has been hard to do. At the same time, the peaceful reunification that I foresee must be centered on the geographical and cultural axis and continuously crystallized and expanded. I have a hunch that this axis is not in the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union, but in East asia.
East Asia, consisting of China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, has a large population. The vitality, the diligence, the courage, the wisdom of these nations are no less than those of any other nation in the world. From the geographical point of view, this is from the common heritage of Chinese culture and Buddhist point of view, or from the outside of modern western civilization had to compromise this common problem, they are connected in a bond. And as far as the Chinese are concerned, thousands of years have succeeded in uniting hundreds of millions of people from the political and cultural world, than any other nation in the world. They demonstrate the ability to be politically and culturally unified and have unparalleled success. Such unification is the absolute requirement of the world today. The reason why the Chinese and the East Asian peoples are cooperative, in the process of human unification which is considered as indispensable and inevitable, may play a leading role, and the reason lies here.
If I speculate that there is no mistake, it is estimated that the unification of the world will be realized in peace. This is the only feasible road in the atomic age. However, although it is the Chinese nation, it is not peaceful at any time. In the Warring States period, as in ancient Greece and modern Europe, there were also divisions and struggles. However, after the Han Dynasty, the belligerent spirit of the Warring States period was abandoned. The founding emperor of the Han Dynasty, Liu Bang, completed the unification of China as far back as 202 bc. Before that, the political unity of the first emperor was accomplished by force. Therefore, after his death, there appeared a place of nationalism restoration. In the Han Dynasty, Liu Bang kept the balance of Chinese national feelings from the local decentralization to the cosmopolitanism. Contrary to Qin Shihuang's actions of charm and despotism, he skillfully used his life to accomplish the cause.
Those who will unify the world in the future must be cosmopolitan, just as the second rulers of China have achieved greater success. At the same time, the ability to achieve the ultimate goal is required. The unification of the world is the way to avoid human collective suicide. In this respect, what is best prepared now is the Chinese people who have developed a unique way of thinking in the past two thousand years. Not in half the world, but in the whole earth where people can live or socialize. A unified future must be achieved, and the original model of the statesman is Liu Bang of the Han dynasty.
Editor's note:
The speech of foreign historians should seem to be worth pondering by chinese. When we look down on their own Chinese Chinese culture, when we Chinese their own history improperly belittle oneself, foreigners can see our culture and our history of outstanding place, even in the eyes of the culture they may unify the whole world.
However, looking back, we Chinese in their own culture and know how many? Against Confucianism, it seems that even the Confucian classics have not read; oppose Buddhism, understanding just seems to only stay in religious, but failed to see the Buddhist outlook on life analysis; against the traditional culture. It is the traditional culture of the cicadas do not know what, just because the opposition so opposed, say a little truth.
Why don't you in a calm mood, quietly understand our culture? Who oppose, there must be a strong opposition who reason to receive flattery or compliment of the era, that Confucianism is a waste, must study by oneself say a Confucian garbage 123th, to convince others, if only no argument argument, just on a top hat Confucian a top, no one will believe. The same is true against buddhism. Some philosophers have said that Buddhist philosophy is the most beautiful philosophy. However, there are many people who can not tolerate Buddhist philosophy in this philosophical forum. Philosophy should not be exclusive, and good philosophy is always the best.
Here, I want to say: as we Chinese, but as a hobby of philosophy Chinese, must have a sound understanding of its history and culture history, rather than standing on the starting point of criticism, historical and cultural studies is to criticize, this is not good. Mr. Qian Muwei said: "there should be some warmth in studying the history and culture of our nation.". In my view, in the present China, as long as it can be done to the point, it has been very good, warmth seems to be difficult to achieve among many people. Of course, this is not to say that history does not need to be criticized, but not so. The critical criteria, is established on the basis of the point, and to achieve this point, is must be established on the basis of understanding or insight on their own history and culture, and not others, or sense judgment. In short, we must have a good view of history, to be able to accurately review and study of national history and culture, to be able to extract from the history and culture of the system can China involved party summary on philosophy.
Arnold Joseph Toynbe (Arnold Joseph Toynbee, 1889 - 1975) was a famous British historian, he was known as "the greatest historian in modern times". Toynbee has a unique vision of history, and his 12 book, historical studies, tells the rise and decline of all the major nations in the world. It is called "the greatest achievement of modern scholars"". Because his uncle is a historian specializing in the history of economic development, also called Arnold Toynbe (Arnold Toynbee, 1852 - 1883), in order to distinguish between the two, people usually call the two person's full name, to avoid confusion.