AI的盛行殃及了外接硬盘、solid state drive、记忆卡价钱的暴涨

下面是我在几家店买的外接硬盘、记忆卡价钱、日期、增加的百分比的表格（2026年3月9日的价钱不是我买的价钱是当天的价钱）：

Micro SD card, solid state drive, CFexpress card,外接硬盘的价钱最近增加了很多。好像在2025年年底，这些东西的价钱一直在增加。而在以前的10年，这些东西的价钱一直在降低。不知是什么原因。上面的表是我在Amazon， best buy, Walmart 和 newegg当时买的价钱的和现在它们的价钱的对比。红的数字是现价和原来买时的价钱的增加的百分比。绿的数字，是当时的价钱和以前买的时候的价钱的降低的百分比。可以看出现在的价钱都增加了，而原来的价钱一直是在降低。

我问了Gemini，它的结论是AI的盛行,生产重心转移,行业"售罄"殃及了外接硬盘、solid state drive、记忆卡价钱的暴涨。Gemini给出的结论是如果你现在不急需这些东西，可以等到2026年底、2027年初，那时价钱可能降下来。

下面是我问Gemini， 它用英语回答的记录，我让deepseek将英语翻译成了中文。

I notice that recently the prices of micro sd cards, external hard drive, ssd increased greatly, could you analyse what it the reason? But in the past ten years, their prices has been dropping greatly. why?

Gemini said

It is definitely frustrating to see prices jump, especially after years of getting used to storage becoming cheaper and cheaper. We are currently in the middle of a massive "storage crisis" that began in late 2024 and has peaked here in 2026.

To understand what’s happening, we have to look at why things are expensive now versus why they were so cheap for the last decade.

1. Why are prices skyrocketing right now (2025–2026)?

The current price hike is being called the "Storage Apocalypse" by some analysts. There are three main culprits:

• The AI Data Center "Vacuum": This is the biggest factor. AI models like GPT-5 and newer generative systems require massive amounts of high-speed memory (DRAM) and high-capacity storage (NAND/SSDs) to train and run. Data center giants (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) are buying up nearly 70–90% of the global supply, leaving very little for the consumer market.

+1

• Production Shifts (The HBM Pivot): Manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix have shifted their factory capacity away from making "standard" SSDs and SD cards to focus on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). HBM is much more profitable because it’s essential for AI chips (like NVIDIA’s). Since they are making less standard NAND flash, the price for what remains has more than doubled.

+1

• A "Sold Out" Industry: Major manufacturers, including Western Digital and Phison, have publicly stated that their entire production capacity for 2026 is already sold out. When supply is literally zero for new customers, prices for existing stock on shelves (like Micro SD cards and External HDDs) jump instantly.

Note: Between 2025 and early 2026, the cost of a 1TB TLC NAND chip jumped from roughly $4.80 to over $10.70.

2. Why did prices drop so much in the last 10 years?

Until 2024, we enjoyed a "Golden Era" of cheap storage. This happened because of a few predictable economic and technical cycles:

• 3D NAND Technology: In the past decade, engineers figured out how to "stack" memory cells on top of each other (like floors in a skyscraper) rather than just laying them flat. This allowed for 128, 176, or even 232 layers of data in the same tiny space, making high-capacity drives much cheaper to build.
• The Move to QLC: Manufacturers introduced Quad-Level Cell (QLC) technology, which stores four bits of data per cell instead of one or two. While slightly slower, it made 2TB and 4TB SSDs affordable for regular people.
• The 2023 Overproduction: Just before the AI boom, there was actually a huge oversupply of storage. During the post-pandemic slump in 2023, people stopped buying new PCs, but factories kept making chips. This forced companies to "dump" their inventory at record-low prices just to get rid of it.

Summary Comparison

What should you do? If you don't need the storage immediately, industry experts suggest waiting until late 2026 or early 2027, when new "mega-fabs" (chip factories) currently under construction are expected to finally come online and stabilize the supply.

我注意到最近 microSD 卡、移动硬盘和 SSD 的价格大幅上涨，你能分析一下原因吗？但在过去十年里，它们的价格一直在大幅下降。

Gemini 表示：
看到价格突然上涨确实令人沮丧，尤其是在我们已经习惯了存储设备变得越来越便宜的这些年之后。我们目前正处于一场始于 2024 年底、并在 2026 年达到顶峰的大规模"存储危机"之中。

要理解发生了什么，我们必须看看导致当前价格昂贵的原因，以及过去十年价格如此低廉的原因。

1. 为什么价格现在（2025-2026 年）会飙升？
当前的价格上涨被一些分析师称为"存储末日"。主要有三个原因：

• AI 数据中心的"真空吸力"：这是最大的因素。像 GPT-5 和更新的生成式系统需要大量的高速内存 (DRAM) 和大容量存储 (NAND/SSD) 来进行训练和运行。数据中心巨头（微软、谷歌、亚马逊）正在购买全球近 70-90% 的供应量，留给消费市场的份额非常少。
• 生产重心转移（HBM 转型）：像三星和 SK 海力士这样的制造商已将其工厂产能从生产"标准"SSD 和 SD 卡，转向专注于高带宽内存 (HBM)。HBM 的利润要高得多，因为它对 AI 芯片（如 NVIDIA 的芯片）至关重要。由于他们生产的标准 NAND 闪存减少，剩余产品的价格已经上涨了一倍多。
• 行业"售罄"：包括西部数据和 Phison 在内的主要制造商已公开表示，他们 2026 年的全部生产能力已经售罄。当对新客户的供应实际上为零时，现有库存（如 Micro SD 卡和外置 HDD）的价格就会立即上涨。

注意：在 2025 年至 2026 年初，一颗 1TB TLC NAND 芯片的成本从大约 4.80 美元跃升至超过 10.70 美元。

2. 为什么过去 10 年价格下降如此之多？
直到 2024 年，我们享受了一个廉价存储的"黄金时代"。这是由于几个可预测的经济和技术周期造成的：

• 3D NAND 技术：在过去十年中，工程师们找到了如何将存储单元"堆叠"在一起（就像摩天大楼的楼层）的方法，而不是仅仅将它们平铺。这使得在同样微小的空间内实现 128、176 甚至 232 层的数据成为可能，从而大大降低了制造高容量硬盘的成本。
• 转向 QLC：制造商引入了四级单元 (QLC) 技术，每个单元存储四位数据，而不是一位或两位。虽然速度略慢，但它使 2TB 和 4TB SSD 对普通消费者来说变得负担得起。
• 2023 年的过度生产：就在 AI 热潮之前，实际上存在巨大的存储供应过剩。在 2023 年疫情后的低迷期，人们停止购买新电脑，但工厂继续生产芯片。这迫使公司为了清理库存而以创纪录的低价"倾销"产品。

简要对比

你应该怎么做？
如果你不是急需购买存储设备，行业专家建议等到 2026 年底或 2027 年初，届时目前正在建设的新"巨型晶圆厂"预计将最终投产并稳定供应。

4/3/2026: https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/myhouse/15566585.html

4/3/2026: https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/romance/1067596.html